(Commentary, including reposted material. Temporarily posted.)
Primary 'answer' to the rhetorical question posed above: Ultimately, I don't know. (Four months to go until the national election: There are still too many variables, too many things that can happen..)
*...Of course, I'll be happy to offer a few (semi-educated) guesses though...
Those are published below, near the end of this post. *
If you decide not to read much else here: Please be sure to cast your considered vote - no matter what - in the November elections.
Thank you.
(↓Continuing:)
First, however: Though the election is still four months away, polling results linked below would seem to be
(...*ummm...*) "very concerning" -- possibly near-catastrophic -- for any sitting president, seeking re-election:
Recent news article links:
"Biden Leads Trump in Poll Showing 87% Unhappy at U.S. Direction"
Brief excerpt (emphasis added)
:
"Almost 90% of Americans say they are dissatisfied with the state of the country, and their unhappiness is affecting their political decisions four months before the presidential election, a new study from Pew Research Center shows.
Only 17% of Americans of any party say they are “proud” of the U.S. while 71% say they feel angry and 66% fearful. Just 12% of Americans say they are satisfied with the direction of the country..."
Another article, citing the same polling research (link):
"Poll: Republican satisfaction with state of the country drops to record-low 19%"
More 2020 polling data via a different source
(..frequently displayed here..) is available via this link:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/politics/
7/4/20 update -- An opinion/analysis report:
"Republican internal polling signals a Democratic rout"
Embed from Getty Images
..............
Note: ....Also of pertinence for this (forward-looking) 'discussion' (see below). (7/2/20 article link:)
"US hits another bleak coronavirus milestone..."
(6/7/20 article link:)
"The 7 most anticipated Supreme Court decisions"
(
E.g., a court ruling against Trump about disclosure of his taxes could have significant consequences...)
............................................................................................................................................................
(Brief commentary:)
...Need to start with a few quick premises based upon four or so years of observing Donald Trump, the Republican politician. If you don't generally agree with these you can probably stop reading and concoct your own theories, if you wish.
A few premises. (Some supporting article links are included:)
1) Politician Donald Trump is a
lying con-man. A
demagogue. An older white man with limited factual knowledge who does not wish to
learn or hear fact-based information,
especially any that may contradict his own views, or obligations.
2) For the most part, the national
Republican party has (to date) "
sold its soul" to Donald Trump, and his "
leadership".
3) The Trump presidency has never really been about the
entire United States of America. (I.e.; for all of the country's citizens.) It has instead been closer to
a four-year campaign for re-election, aimed almost entirely (to this point) toward (perceived)
supporters.
(YT video link. No copyright claimed or assumed.)
4) Donald Trump appears to "enjoy"
chaos, and may also believe that the federal government (generally) should always be "hamstrung"
/incompetent/a
(distant, for many) liability. (Note that much of this may also be
(essentially) the current Republican Party's ideological "cornerstone"..)
5) Politician Donald Trump frequently does not adhere to (- or respect - )
established (U.S. political) "norms", tradition or convention; especially those "usually" associated with the various roles of the president.
(Insert:) 6) It is at least conceivable that Donald Trump
is somehow 'beholden' to Vladimir Putin (and Russia). ...That someone in power in that country
has influence - or damning information - on him.
7) A few months until the scheduled November election
: Unless prospects for Trump's re-election
dramatically turn around fairly soon,
administration "rats" may start "jumping ship".
................................................................................................................................................................
....(For any still interested,)
I'll return with some suggested possibilities for the (near-) future of the Trump 2020 re-election effort, in the next day or two. (Update:) Please see further below for a few of those...
For the moment:
↓Here (linked article below) is one example of -- at least part of -- the current re-election "plan":
(Essentially:) Ignore deadly coronavirus in the U.S., publicly rally core supporters, pander to possible "swing" voters, attack voting in the U.S., call Joe Biden (et al) nasty and baseless names, ....and wave ( -wave-wave..) the flag.
(7/2/20 article link:) "
Revived Mount Rushmore Fireworks Will Feature Trump But No Social Distancing"
...
Or, is
their there really much of a "plan" (- other than that listed above -) at all..? (Unaffiliated 6/29/20 opinion/analysis article link):
"
Trump’s Blank Vision for a Second Term"
↓↓↓↓↓↓↓↓↓↓↓↓↓↓↓↓↓↓↓↓↓↓↓↓↓↓↓↓↓↓↓↓↓↓↓↓↓↓↓↓↓↓↓↓↓↓↓↓↓↓↓↓↓↓↓↓↓↓↓↓↓↓↓↓↓↓↓↓↓↓↓↓↓↓↓↓↓↓↓↓
(Conclusion:) "So now what"(for Donald Trump's re-election effort)? Here are a few suggested insights + possibilities. (This section will be updated over the next couple of days or so:)
1) If the national election were being held today --
which it is not --- Donald Trump would likely
lose the popular vote,
again. (One source:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/). Trump also currently appears to be trailing Joe Biden in several key 'battleground' states. (One source:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/25/upshot/poll-2020-biden-battlegrounds.html)
...Trump (and Republicans) may still hope that polls will narrow, but some white voters could be abandoning him. Unaffiliated opinion/analysis source link: "
White Voters Are Abandoning Trump"
2) For the short-term (at least), watch what Trump does
(...if you can stomach it...)/what he says
/how he behaves at
public appearances this Fourth of July weekend, for some clues.
Is it essentially "more of the same" act? (See the "for the moment" paragraph written above..)
Also, some suggested reading: Unaffiliated 7/2/20 opinion column link.
(A subscription may be required:)
"Trump surveyed the smoking ruin of his reelection and decided: Be more Trumpy"
Quick update: As generally alluded to in the article above, Trump went-off with a nasty, divisive speech at Mt. Rushmore, railing against some kind of "far-left fascism", etc. etc..... that nazi-like adviser/sometime speech-writer
Stephen Miller likely regularly fantasizes about...:
Source article link for more info. (subscription):
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/03/us/politics/trump-coronavirus-mount-rushmore.html
3) Watch the U.S. coronavirus cases (graph) line, going forward. (One source is embedded below. Data as of 7/3/20, customized with countries chosen.
Note: The
European Union and China have populations significantly larger than the
United States.)
...A case can be made that Trump's re-election prospects may be (more or less) inversely related (to U.S. coronavirus cases growth)....especially if he continues to ignore or downplay the outbreak (along with his administration).
A couple of unaffiliated opinions, etc. for you (links):
"
Trump Is Seeking Reelection on a Pro-Coronavirus Platform"
"
Poll: Record number of voters disapprove of Trump's handling of COVID-19"
(
Update:)... Wrapping this up for now, as we all need to enjoy the holiday the best that we can...:
4) "Trump is consumed by scandal", is one "...what path is the Trump presidency on now" possibility from an interesting discussion here (unaffiliated article link:)
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-path-is-the-trump-presidency-on-now/
...Also a good, brief discussion at the end of the article about various external factors and their possible effect upon the Trump presidency.
5) No supporting links for this (lengthy) sentence: If Trump stays in the race, he and Republican 'henchmen'(/sycophants) will try as many "dirty tricks" in the book as possible -- and some not in any book -- to try and maintain power...
...
That includes continuing to
suppress or disenfranchise as many voters
/potential voters as possible, and (also) all kinds of attempts to (falsely) question,
attack +
de-legitimize the upcoming national election.
6) Donald Trump (sometimes) likes to see himself as a "disrupter", and also as "
unpredictable" and "
unconventional". A small possibility may exist that Trump (
+ Republicans) may (eventually) decide that he has little real chance of winning in 2020 (despite machinations suggested above). Trump could (then) conceivably try to "cut a deal" (e.g., with federal authorities), including (even) attempting to pardon himself, and step aside for another, last-minute candidate. (...
But some state ballots have August deadline dates for candidates...) More about some speculative possibilities, here (unaffiliated article link:)
https://prospect.org/politics/youre-fired-sad-trump-resignation-deal/
7) There are surely still more paths or possibilities going forward, but I'll end here by excerpting some last words from a recent opinion column by Maureen Dowd of
The New York Times. (Unaffiliated source article link, subscription:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/27/opinion/sunday/trump-statues-2020-reelection.html:)
(Excerpt:)
"...I asked Tim O’Brien, the Trump biographer, what to expect as the man obsessed with winning faces humiliating rejection.
“He will descend further into abuse, alienation and authoritarianism,” O’Brien said. “That’s what he’s stewing on most of the time, the triple A’s.”"
.............
Thank you to any and all for reading (and considering) this long post....
